Determinants of Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam: Empirical Evidence and Policy Recommendations
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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63640/3030-4091/jpd.apd.148Từ khóa:
economic growth, budget revenue, investment capital, labour force, post-COVID recoveryTóm tắt
This study examines the determinants of provincial economic growth across 63 provinces and cities in Vietnam during the 2022–2024 period, a critical stage of post-COVID recovery. While previous studies have often focused on long-term structural factors, this research emphasises the immediate drivers of growth during the transition from pandemic disruption to economic normalisation. Using a Generalised Least Squares (GLS) model, the analysis identifies three core factors—state budget revenue, investment capital, and labour force—that exert a positive influence on gross regional domestic product (GRDP). Investment capital emerges as the most decisive driver, not only expanding production capacity but also stimulating infrastructure development, competitiveness, and spillover effects across sectors. State budget revenue is equally significant, reflecting fiscal capacity as the foundation for public investment, welfare programs, and integrated infrastructure. The labour force also contributes positively, though with a relatively modest effect, highlighting the need to improve labour quality and productivity. By situating the findings in the post-COVID context, this study provides new empirical evidence on Vietnam's recovery trajectory and offers practical insights for policy priorities aimed at sustaining growth through enhanced
investment efficiency, stronger fiscal capacity, and human capital development
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