Applying Deep Learning Models in Forecasting Real Estate Stock Prices: Empirical Evidence from the Vietnamese Stock Market
Đã Xuất bản
Cách trích dẫn
Số
Chuyên mục
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63640/3030-4091/jpd.apd.153Từ khóa:
Stock price forecasting, LSTM, GRU, CNN-LSTM, Real estate stocksTóm tắt
This study compares the traditional ARIMA model with three deep learning models—LSTM, GRU, and CNN-LSTM—in forecasting the closing prices of 15 listed real estate companies in Vietnam over the period from January 2015 to August 2025. The experiments show that the GRU model achieves the lowest RMSE and MAE and higher directional accuracy (DA) than the other models. The results indicate that GRU is a suitable model for short-term forecasting in the Vietnamese market. The study also suggests that future research should integrate macroeconomic and unstructured data to improve directional forecasting performance.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alexander, C. (2008). Market risk analysis, Volume II: Practical financial econometrics. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons.
Bao, W., Yue, J., & Rao, Y. (2017). A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long–short term memory. PLoS ONE, 12(7), e0180944. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180944
Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. San Francisco, CA: Holden-Day.
Cho, K., van Merriënboer, B., Gulcehre, C., Bahdanau, D., Bougares, F., Schwenk, H., & Bengio, Y. (2014). Learning phrase representations using an RNN encoder–decoder for statistical machine translation. Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 1724–1734. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1406.1078
Chung, J., Gulcehre, C., Cho, K., & Bengio, Y. (2015). Gated feedback recurrent neural networks. Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2067–2075.
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912773
Fischer, T., & Krauss, C. (2018). Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions. European Journal of Operational Research, 270(2), 654–669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.054
Hochreiter, S., & Schmidhuber, J. (1997). Long short-term memory. Neural Computation, 9(8), 1735–1780. https://doi.org/10.1162/neco.1997.9.8.1735
Nguyen, T. H., & Bui, Q. T. (2015). Forecasting the Vietnam Stock Index using a Hybrid ARIMA-GARCH model. Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ – Đại học Đà Nẵng. Retrieved from https://jst-ud.vn/jst-ud/article/view/2221
Nguyen, T. T. H. (2014). Ứng dụng mô hình ARIMA trong dự báo chỉ số VN-Index. Thư viện Đại học Đà Nẵng. Retrieved from https://elib.vku.udn.vn/handle/123456789/267
Nguyen, T. M. H. (2023). Dự báo chỉ số chứng khoán bằng học máy: Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam. Tạp chí Kinh tế và Dự báo. Retrieved from https://kinhtevadubao.vn/du-bao-chi-so-chung-khoan-bang-hoc-may-bang-chung-thuc-nghiem-tu-thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-29030.html
Tran, Q. Q., Nguyen, V. H., Ha, V. N., & Nguyen, T. T. (2024). Sử dụng mô hình học sâu LSTM trong dự đoán giá trị cổ phiếu. TNU Journal of Science and Technology, 229(15), 103–111. https://doi.org/10.34238/tnu-jst.11554
Tsay, R. S. (2010). Analysis of financial time series (3rd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.



