The Global Minimum Tax as a Policy Shock: Implications for Vietnam’s Foreign Direct Investment Attraction Strategy
Đã Xuất bản
Cách trích dẫn
Số
Chuyên mục
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63640/3030-4091/jpd.apd.174Từ khóa:
Global Minimum Tax; Foreign Direct Investment; Tax Incentives; Institutional Quality; Policy Shock; VietnamTóm tắt
This paper examines the implications of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) for Vietnam’s foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction strategy in the context of deepening international financial integration. Evidence from Vietnam’s FDI performance during 2019–2025 indicates resilient and increasingly deep investment inflows, primarily driven by export-oriented manufacturing and supported by incentive-based policies. However, the introduction of the GMT constitutes a structural policy shock that directly weakens the effectiveness of tax-based incentives, one of the core pillars of Vietnam’s traditional FDI competitiveness. Drawing on established FDI theories and international tax policy literature, the study proposes an analytical framework encompassing three dimensions: (i) tax policy and investment incentives; (ii) institutional quality and the investment environment; and (iii) strategic responses of FDI enterprises. The analysis suggests that while the GMT constrains competition through low effective tax rates, it simultaneously creates momentum for a strategic shift toward an FDI-attracting model centered on institutional quality, transparency, innovation capacity, and sustainable value creation. Accordingly, the paper advances policy directions to redesign incentives, strengthen institutional capacity, and support enterprise-level adaptation in the emerging post-tax-incentive era.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Blomstrom, M., & Kokko, A. (2003). The Economics of Foreign Direct Investment Incentives. NBER Working Paper Series, 9489. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9489.
Devereux, M. P., & Vella, J. (2023). Implications of the global minimum tax for investment and tax competition. Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
Dunning, J. H., & Lundan, S. M. (2008). Multinational enterprises and the global economy (2nd ed.). Edward Elgar Publishing.
EY Vietnam. (2024). Vietnam’s tax readiness under the Global Minimum Tax framework. Hanoi: Ernst & Young Vietnam.
General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO). (2026). Socio-economic situation in the fourth quarter of 2025. Retrieved from https://www.nso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/2026/01/socio-economic-situation-in-the-fourth-quarter-and-2025.
Globerman, Steven & Shapiro, Daniel. (2002). Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows: The Role of Governance Infrastructure. World Development. 30(11). 1899-1919. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00110-9.
Government of Vietnam. (2025). Decree No. 236/2025/NĐ-CP of the Government: Detailing several articles of the National Assembly's Resolution No. 107/2023/QH15 dated November 29, 2023, on the application of supplementary corporate income tax in accordance with the Global Anti-Base Erosion rules. Hanoi.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). Global fiscal policy monitor: Implementing the global minimum tax in developing economies. Washington, DC: IMF.
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and analytical issues. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
Klemm, A., & Van Parys, S. Empirical evidence on the effects of tax incentives. International Tax Public Finance 19, 393–423 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-011-9194-8.
KPMG. (2024). Pillar Two readiness in Asia: Policy responses and incentive shifts. https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmgsites/xx/pdf/2025/06/pillar-two-and-tax-incentives-may-2025.pdf.
Le Quoc Hoi et al. (2024). The impact of the Global Minimum Tax on Vietnam's foreign investment attraction policy. Journal of Economics and Development, (322), 45–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100090.
Ministry of Finance (Vietnam). (2024). Report on the status of foreign direct investment attraction in 2024. Retrieved from: https://www.mpi.gov.vn/portal/Pages/2025-1-6/Tinh-hinh-thu-hut-dau-tu-nuoc-ngoai-nam-2024-5ihdt0.aspx.
Morisset, J., & Pirnia, N. (2000). How tax policy and incentives affect foreign direct investment: A review (Policy Research Working Paper No. 2509). Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19742.
Nguyen Van Phung. (2023). Impact of the Global Minimum Tax on Vietnamese enterprises. Finance Journal, (6), 15–20.
North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change, and economic performance. Cambridge University Press.
OECD. (2015). Policy framework for investment 2015 edition. Paris: OECD Publishing.
OECD. (2023). OECD Economic Surveys: Viet Nam 2023. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/vi/publications/reports/2023/04/oecd-economic-surveys-viet-nam-2023_8d886a88/7f5fe56b-vi.pdf.
OECD. (2024). Global Anti-Base Erosion (GloBE) Rules: Implementation handbook. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/global-minimum-tax/global-anti-base-erosion-model-rules-pillar-two.html.
OECD. (2025). Peer review report on transitional Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-up Taxes. Paris: OECD Publishing.
The National Assembly. (2013). Law No. 32/2013/QH13: Law amending and supplementing several articles of the Law on Corporate Income Tax, dated June 19, 2013.
